Anyone who knows me well will tell you I have been avidly studying influenza and virology since 1997,the obsession started with H5N1 otherwise known as bird or avian influenza.So I am fairly up on the goings on around this unpredictable disease.
I am supplying my sources for all this info at the bottom of this page.
The government are saying that death certificates are going to be fast tracked to help docs cope with Swine flu,the details released after the autopsy on the doc who died in Northampton say he died of pulmonary embolism ,in case you didn't know that can be a result of ARDS brought on by the viral pneumonia that he was suffering from,this is the most complex way I can imagine that one denies flu as a cause of death while actually saying it was the cause.A whole load of the tamiflu we have stockpiled in this country goes out of date in the early part of this Autumn,the powers that be are talking about extending its death date.Britain's medical chief, Sir Liam Donaldson said "between 30 to 35% of people could come down with the virus this winter." I wonder how many of us have an underlying medical condition,asthma,heart disease,high blood pressure,diabetes,kidney or liver disease,obesity,pregnancy the list goes on and on,seems to me that being alive in the first place is an underlying medical condition.
The virus hasn't yet changed to become more dangerous,but lets do the numbers,if 10% of my village,say a hundred people normally get seasonal flu and out of those 1% die,what happens when you get 30 to 35% sick a good percentage of those with underlying conditions? even if you stick to the 1% figure 1% of 350 is more dead than 1% of 100.I really hope this flu peters out and becomes a simple seasonal flu really quickly or we will all be in trouble.
Oh and don't rely on a safe vaccine before November time.
Even more worrying are reports coming in from Indonesia of a vet who has tested positive for swine flu that he thinks he caught from sick chickens.......lets hope no chicken gets H5N1 at the same time as it gets H1N1,the current case fatality ratio for bird flu is hovering around sixty percent.Maybe we should all try ginger tea
http://www.swineflunews.org/news/wire/philippines/www.manilatimes.net/national/2009/july/15/yehey/life/20090715lif1.html
Sources
Underlying conditions
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/health/policy/28flu.html?_r=1
Death certificates
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6714709.ece
Tamiflu death dates
http://thejobbingdoctor.blogspot.com/2009/07/we-all-love-tamiflu.html
Extending the dates on tamiflu
http://www.nursinginpractice.com/default.asp?title=Tamiflushelflifecanbeextended&page=article.display&article.id=16633
The doctors death as commented on by a top epidemiologist.
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/07/swine_flu_how_not_to_report_a.php
Liam Donaldson
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/07/15/swine-flu-virus-could-last-5-years-says-medic-115875-21520568/
Vaccine wait
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqaJxASCVGM
A rough translation of press report from Indonesia.
http://birdflucorner.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/tangerang-banten-vets-family-infected-by-ah1n1-virus/
Posted 15 July 2009 at 7:03PM |
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